Could Bitcoin (BTC) still be due for a major price correction? Not likely, according to popular Bitcoin price guru Willy Woo.
The on-chain analyst has used blockchain data mapping bitcoin investors’ average buy-in price to determine that the asset likely won’t descend under $30,000 ever again.
Bitcoin’s New Floor is $30k
In a post to X on Tuesday, Woo shared a “Bitcoin Cost Basis Density Map” – a contour chart tracking bitcoin’s supply based on the price that long-term investors paid for their coins.
The line chart shows a dense grey band reflecting the price around which much of the bitcoin supply moved at the time, reflecting “strong agreed value” according to Woo.
Since Bitcoin’s inception, the analyst claims that the band has operated as infallible price support that is never retested under three specific conditions. These conditions include strong bands of agreed price, emergence from a bear market, and another Bitcoin “halving” coming just around the corner.
That’s the situation bitcoin is in today: not only has the asset risen 130% since the infamous collapse of FTX last year, but the next halving – a cyclical event that cuts the issuance rate of new BTC in half – is due for April 2024.
Woo’s chart shows that such bands have formed under the relevant conditions 8 times in Bitcoin’s history, and have always propped up Bitcoin’s price at such times.
“Bitcoin is far from a commodity market at saturation,” wrote Woo. “What we’re seeing across the 13 yrs of this chart is BTC’s widespread adoption.”
“This is only going to climb with a spot ETF,” he added.
Not everyone is convinced of Woo’s hypothesis, however: fellow price analyst TXMC noted that Woo made a similar prediction in 2021 that Bitcoin would never descend under $40,000 again, which failed the following year.
“He’s back with another floor price just 20% below current level,” he said. “We really do go in cycles.”
Plan B’s Prediction
Another popular analyst, Plan B, made a similar prediction on Sunday, asserting that Bitcoin’s price will remain between $32,000 and $64,000 ahead of the next halving.
The analyst based his estimate on his signature stock-to-flow model – a rough model of Bitcoin’s price appreciation based on its scarcity.
Yet Plan B’s predictions have also missed dramatically in the past. In 2021, the analyst called for BTC to reach $135,000 by December of that year, though the asset only topped at $69,000 in November.
He also predicted in February that Bitcoin would rise to $100,000 by the end of 2023. As of November, the asset only trades for $36,000.